A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
